Michael Obuchowski of Merlin Asset Management has watched every move in the campaign closely- including all the WikiLeaks email dumps on Clinton - and made two calls based on it: that Clinton will win and that she won’t go as far left as some investors initially feared. Traders and money managers betting on a Clinton win could wind up in trouble if the outcome goes the other way. And oil tends to go up when investors expect stronger economic growth and more demand for energy. Gold tends to be a safe haven when investors are worried about possible economic and financial instability.

Oil prices rose during the first debate and gold fell. Futures contracts for the VIX index, which tracks market volatility, fell sharply during the first debate, suggesting investors expect much less volatility under a Clinton White House than a Trump White House. The Trump effect also shows up for traders betting on market volatility. Traders betting on the Mexican peso to take a beating under a President Trump, who has promised a trade crackdown, have lost big following debates in which Clinton did well.Īfter hitting new lows against the dollar during Trump’s rise to the GOP nomination, the peso has spiked higher following the debates and after the release of the audiotape showing Trump making disparaging remarks about women. The report also shows where investors around the world are making big money on the 2016 campaign. Trump himself now talks about his own upset prospects as “another Brexit.” Stock prices around the world tanked over the summer when British voters surprised pundits and voted in favor of pulling the country out of the European Union. Should Trump somehow manage to win you could see major Brexit-style selling.”

“You saw Clinton win the first debate and her odds jumped and stocks moved right along with it. “Wall Street clearly prefers a Clinton win certainly from the prospective of equity prices,” said Dartmouth College’s Eric Zitzewitz, one of the authors of the new study along with the University of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers.

Tank when we bet